Expectations are high for a year of climate action in 2025 to ensure the ICAO's decarbonization vision for 2030 can be achieved.

 

During the last quarter of 2024, the World Economic Forum surveyed the views of around 30 C-suite executives from the aviation community. Despite headwinds last year – including SAF plant closures, scrapped projects and delays in policy guidance and incentives – executives were cautiously optimistic. More than two-thirds of respondents were confident that the momentum for aviation decarbonization will continue in 2025, with a minority voicing neutral or negative expectations for the year ahead (see Figure 2).

Industry leaders flagged some developments as particularly promising: – The second half of 2024 saw notable breakthroughs in technology development and investment, with significant capital raised by SAF start-ups. – SAF production doubled from 2023 to 2024 and is expected to double again in 2025. – After several election cycles across the globe, more administrations are introducing new SAF policies or strengthening existing policies – the new government in the United Kingdom boosted support for SAF within weeks of taking office. Respondents were also largely optimistic about the feasibility of the 2030 vision agreed at the third Conference on Aviation and Alternative Fuels (CAAF/3), convened by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) in Dubai in November 2023 (see Box 1 and Figure 3). However, a minority of respondents remain pessimistic about the sector’s ability to reduce the carbon footprint of aviation fuels by 5% by the end of the decade. 

The next ICAO General Assembly in September 2025 will be an important moment to assess industry optimism around the 2030 vision and whether the long-term global aspirational goal (LTAG) for net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 will remain the north star guiding countries ahead. Several of the stakeholders interviewed would like to see renewed support for ICAO from all countries, with a particular focus on supporting the Global South to achieve a just and equitable transition. ICAO’s General Assembly will not be the only international event under scrutiny this year. November’s COP30 in Brazil represents a major moment to advance climate negotiations on the back of developments during COP29 in Baku and the submission of updated nationally determined contributions (NDCs) during 2025. While aviation has traditionally taken up limited space during recent conferences of parties, COP29 saw a multitude of aviation-related events and conversations spurred by key developments in international negotiations. In Baku, both the agreement of a new collective quantifiable goal – aiming to scale-up at least $1.3 trillion of public-private financing for developing countries by 2035 – and the adoption of final Article 6 rules have implications on aviation. The former led to multiple calls for implementing a global solidarity levy on aviation and shipping fuels (see Chapter 3.3),3 while the latter paved the way for a smoother implementation of ICAO’s CORSIA scheme by clarifying rules on corresponding adjustments for the use of carbon credits as mitigation measures in aviation, while avoiding double counting towards an NDC.

As aviation and climate negotiators convene in international forums during this pivotal year for climate action, several surveyed CEOs highlighted the need for governments to agree on a consistent aviation decarbonization approach across countries and to establish a clear path to carbon emissions reduction targets already set, potentially through the introduction of interim milestones on the journey to the 2030 ICAO vision and 2050 long-term aspirational goal, so as to better guide industry and investors. However, not all respondents were supportive of additional milestones or targets, given the increasing fatigue around sustainability targets that emerged at the end of last year. Some executives warned about setting targets without supporting actions. Chapter 2 explores some of the more significant enablers proposed by industry leaders, such as global standardization of SAF sustainability criteria, regulatory standards building on CORSIA and the adoption of global de-risking mechanisms for SAF.  

"The aviation industry’s journey towards net zero is a testament to the power of innovation and collaboration. At EcoCeres, we are committed to scaling SAF production through cutting-edge technologies and strategic partnerships, ensuring that cost and availability no longer hinder progress. As updated state action plans are submitted to ICAO, it is imperative that governments, industry leaders and innovators work hand-in-hand to accelerate decarbonization efforts. Together, we can turn these challenges into stepping stones, ensuring a sustainable future for aviation and leaving no region behind in the transition to net zero." Matti Lievonen, Chief Executive Officer, EcoCeres